understanding politics, considerations

Is Ahmadinejad Losing Influence?


January 22nd, 2007 · Iran, Israel and the Middle East, World Affairs

The Times of Lon­don reports that:

Alarmed by mount­ing US pres­sure and United Nations sanc­tions, offi­cials close to Aya­tol­lah Ali Khamenei favour the appoint­ment of a more mod­er­ate team for inter­na­tional nego­ti­a­tions on the super­vi­sion of its nuclear facilities.

The move would be a snub to the bel­li­cose pres­i­dent, Mah­moud Ahmadine­jad, whose threats to destroy Israel have left Iran increas­ingly iso­lated and fac­ing a seri­ous eco­nomic downturn.

Tehran sources said the impe­tus for a pol­icy switch was com­ing from Khamenei, who has ulti­mate power over Iran’s for­eign pol­icy, secu­rity and armed forces.

Khamenei is said to believe that Washington’s aim is not only to halt Iran’s nuclear pro­gramme but to over­throw the regime.

He also con­sid­ers the national inter­est is being under­mined by an inex­pe­ri­enced pres­i­dent whose rhetoric is unnec­es­sar­ily inflammatory.

Ahmadine­jad has always struck me as an apoc­a­lyp­tic loon who is blinded by his hatred of Israel and the infamous, movie-star sta­tus he gained at the United Nations and among peo­ple like Hugo Chavez and Fidel Cas­tro. This is what makes him so scary.

Aya­tol­lah Khamenei, on the other hand, is prob­a­bly more ratio­nal. A per­son must indeed have men­tal intel­li­gence and polit­i­cal cun­ning to remain in a posi­tion of supreme power in any coun­try. Adolph Hitler and Sad­dam Hus­sein, among others, may have been evil, but they were not stupid.

At some point, even the Aya­tol­lah must lis­ten to the peo­ple — and the peo­ple need some­one who will fix Iran’s econ­omy and not risk a need­less war with the United States and Israel.

Adden­dum: Grand Aya­tol­lah Hos­sein Ali Mon­taz­eri, the one-time suc­ces­sor to Aya­tol­lah Khome­ini, is crit­i­ciz­ing Ahmadine­jad as well.