As syndicated columnist Mark Steyn has been noting (with some degree of excessive alarmism), the study of demographics can provide some insight into the future.
The birth rates of natural-born citizens in the United States and Western Europe have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1. (The reasons are debatable, but they most likely include increased access to education, higher standards of living, loss of religious belief, and more attention to women’s rights.) The populations of those countries would be declining if it were not for immigration. In other words, countries like France and Spain are becoming less ethnically French and Spanish because most immigrants to those countries are Arabs and Muslims from the Middle East and Africa. This is leading to some hysteria among conservatives, who claim that soon Europe will be called Eurabia and London will be Londonistan.
Still, a similar change is occurring in the United States. But most immigrants — and many babies being born — are of Hispanic origin. This is especially obvious in the increasing number of Hispanic Americans in the Catholic Church, as this New York Times Magazine piece illustrates.
The implications of these factors are enormous, but perhaps overstated. Currently most immigrants to Europe and the United States are religious and poor, and those are two characteristics of people who tend to have more children than average. Once these people settle into their societies and — hopefully — become more educated and climb up the social ladder, then they will likely have fewer children. So perhaps Steyn and others like him are overreacting. Or not. Still, it will be interesting to see how American and European culture changes in the coming years.
