Friends Until the… End?

For­eign Pol­icy and the Cen­ter for Amer­i­can Progress recently asked more than 100 experts a series of ques­tions for The Ter­ror­ism Index, one of which was: “Which Amer­i­can ally ‘least serves U.S. interests’?” The answer was interesting:

1. Rus­sia — 34%
2. Pak­istan — 22%
3. Saudi Ara­bia — 17%
4. Israel — 14%
5. Mex­ico — 5%
6. Egypt — 5%

Rus­sia has made provoca­tive state­ments towards the West, allegedly waged cyber­war on a neigh­bor­ing coun­try, pos­tured aggres­sively and vir­tu­ally elim­i­nated democ­racy. The coun­try can afford to do these things because its vast amount of nat­ural resources (which cli­mate change will only increase due to melt­ing snow and ice in the north) allows it not to be depen­dent on other coun­tries. In fact, much of Europe now depends on Rus­sia for its nat­ural gas. After years of humil­ity fol­low­ing the col­lapse of the Soviet Union, Rus­sia seems to be enjoy­ing its new­found soft power.

Pak­istan is cur­rently a semi-useful ally. Pres­i­dent Gen. Mushar­raf is help­ing the United States and fight­ing Islamic extrem­ists with one hand tied behind his back. If he cracks down too much, then he risks a coup, vio­lent upris­ings or even assas­si­na­tion. More­over, the mod­er­ate major­ity is los­ing con­fi­dence in the pres­i­dent because of his actions that threaten the country’s democ­racy and the rule of law. If Pak­istan falls to the extrem­ists, then ter­ror­ists will have access to the country’s nuclear weapons.

Saudi Ara­bia is also an ten­ta­tive ally despite being an Islamic theoc­racy. The mod­er­ate Sunni Mus­lim gov­ern­ment sup­plies the West with its nec­es­sary energy resources and serves a coun­ter­weight to a resur­gent Iran, which is export­ing ter­ror­ism and Shi’ite Mus­lim extrem­ism. How­ever, Saudi Ara­bia made a Devil’s bar­gain with its own Sunni extrem­ists (includ­ing, of course, Al-Qaeda) decades ago by agree­ing to fund and export their beliefs in order to gain cler­i­cal sup­port to stay in power. The coun­try, then, can only do so much to help the United States.

Israel is a very impor­tant ally. Of course, many aca­d­e­mics and activists on the extreme left — some of whom may have been included in this sur­vey — con­stantly con­demn the coun­try for its alleged mis­treat­ment of the Pales­tini­ans. (Some real, some imag­ined and some jus­ti­fied, some not.) A sig­nif­i­cant fac­tion of these peo­ple believe that Israel can do no right, and there­fore the United States should not be the country’s ally out of moral — some would say anti-Semitic — concerns.

An obvi­ous state­ment is that the United States’ sup­port for Israel also inspires and enrages Islamic extrem­ists through­out the world. But the cost is worth the ben­e­fit. Israel, Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Ara­bia and Jor­dan together com­prise a mod­er­ate block that opposes Iran, Hamas and Hizbol­lah. A bal­ance of power must be main­tained against the forces of extrem­ism, and Israel has the Mid­dle East’s best mil­i­tary (thanks, of course, to the United States). Israel’s Mossad and Shin Bet agen­cies also pro­vide valu­able intelligence.

The list­ing of Mex­ico is mys­ti­fy­ing because our economies depend on each other. I can only attribute the country’s list­ing to con­ser­v­a­tive respon­dents who oppose Mexico’s desire for the United States to change its immi­gra­tion poli­cies to allow more peo­ple into the coun­try legally.

Egypt is another coun­try that, for the afore­men­tioned rea­sons, is an impor­tant ally. How­ever, the gov­ern­ment of Pres­i­dent Hosni Mubarak has turned Egypt into a secular, authoritarian police state that crushes all oppo­si­tion, includ­ing that of the mod­er­ately Islamist Mus­lim Broth­er­hood. As a result, much of the “Egypt­ian street” is angry at the United States for sup­port­ing such a despot. No one knows what would hap­pen if the Mus­lim Broth­er­hood, or another oppo­si­tion group, were to gain power.

(For more his­tor­i­cal back­ground on Islamic extrem­ism and Egypt, Israel and Saudi Ara­bia, as well as other Mid­dle East­ern countries, click here.)

The ques­tion on posed to the experts on America’s allies is inter­est­ing in terms of the answers given. Rus­sia is the only coun­try that seems to be work­ing against the United States in cer­tain con­texts. (Israel, of course, is a staunch ally.) By list­ing Pak­istan, Saudi Ara­bia and Egypt, the respon­dents seem to state that these three coun­tries have the great­est poten­tial to turn away from the United States because of polit­i­cal con­di­tions in those states. We’ll see what will happen.