David Brooks travels to the Middle East and finds that:
Iran has done what decades of peace proposals have not done — brought Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the Palestinians and the U.S. together. You can go to Jerusalem or to some Arab capitals and the diagnosis of the situation is the same: Iran is gaining hegemonic strength over the region and is spreading tentacles of instability all around.
The Syrians, who have broken with the Sunni nations and attached themselves to Iran, are feeling stronger by the day. At least one-third of Iraq is under Iranian influence. Hezbollah is better armed and more confident now than it was before its war against Israel. Hamas is being drawn closer inside the Iranian orbit and is more likely to take over the West Bank than lose its own base in Gaza.
In short, Iran is taking advantage of the region’s three civil wars and could have its proxy armies on Israel’s northern, western and southern borders.
I’m not as worried about Iran obtaining nuclear weapons as I used to be. Even though Iran’s president is certifiably crazy, Iran’s supreme leader, the ayatollah, is probably not suicidal. And he’s the one who controls the military.
However, I am worried that Iran will become the dominant Islamic power in the region. Egypt’s strength and stability may decline, particularly when the authoritarian president, Hosni Mubarak, dies or otherwise leaves office. The opposition Muslim Brotherhood may also keep trying to topple the existing order. The other powerful Arab state, Saudi Arabia, will face increasing turmoil at home when oil revenue declines — as it surely will one day — and the devil’s bargain the government struck with its Sunni extremists becomes null and void. Although Egypt and Saudi Arabia are repressive regimes that treat their people harshly, their foreign policies have been relatively moderate.
If Egypt and Saudi Arabia decline in power, Iran will certainly try to fill the void. Power abhors a vacuum in the Middle East. And that’s what is truly frightening.
