On His Way Out

RISHON LEZION, Israel — Israeli Prime Min­is­ter Ehud Olmert is finally head­ing for the exit. Let’s hope Israel’s long national night­mare of cor­rup­tion and incom­pe­tence is over. But he will remain as care­taker prime min­is­ter until For­eign Min­is­ter Tzipi Livni, the new head of the rul­ing Kadima party, can form another gov­ern­ing coali­tion. If she can­not do so after lit­tle more than a month, then Pres­i­dent Shi­mon Peres will order a new gen­eral election.

Livni faces a com­pli­cated task. Here’s the cur­rent party break­down of Israel’s parliament:

Kadima (mod­er­ate, cen­trist) – 29

Labour (left-wing, social­ist) — 12

Shas (Sepharadi, ultra-Orthodox) — 12

Likud (right-wing, cap­i­tal­ist) — 12

Yis­rael Beit­einu (right-wing, Russ­ian) – 11

National Reli­gious Party (ultra-Orthodox) – 9

Gil (advo­cates for pen­sion­ers) — 7

United Torah Judaism (ultra-Orthodox) — 6

Meretz (left-wing and sec­u­lar) — 5

United Arab List (Israeli Arabs) — 4

Hadash (Israeli-Arab com­mu­nists) — 3

Balad (Israeli Arabs, favors a one-state solu­tion) — 3

Livni will need to gain the sup­port of enough par­ties to hold a sixty seats, a major­ity in the Knes­set, and it’s not yet clear how she can do it. Likud, headed by for­mer prime min­is­ter Ben­jamin Netanyahu, Yis­rael Beit­einu, and the ultra-Orthodox par­ties will never join a Kadima-led gov­ern­ment because they do not sup­port the cur­rent peace process. They also want a mil­i­tary strike against Iran’s nuclear facil­i­ties, not Kadima’s cur­rent diplo­matic efforts. The Labor Party, cur­rently headed by for­mer prime min­is­ter Ehud Barak, may decide to sit in the oppo­si­tion in order to revive its lack­lus­ter posi­tion and reform the party.

How­ever, Shas will join any coali­tion as long as the party is guar­enteed to receive gov­ern­ment fund­ing for its charedi con­sti­tu­tents, their large fam­i­lies, and their reli­gious facil­i­ties. (How­ever, Shas might pres­sure Livni to promise that a divi­sion of Jerusalem is com­pletely off the table.) Gil would join in order to keep its Cab­i­net posi­tion over­see­ing pen­sions. Meretz, and pos­si­bly the United Arab List, would likely want to join a gov­ern­ment to help move the peace process along.

But this coali­tion — Kadima, Shas, Gil, Meretz, and the United Arab List — would only bring fifty-seven seats. Livni needs three more. The only pos­si­ble solu­tion is for Livni to bring in Labor or one of the other Israeli-Arab par­ties. I’m not sure what she will do. The future of the gov­ern­ment might just rest of Ehud Barak’s shoulders.

The next gov­ern­ment will need to deal with a brew­ing global finan­cial cri­sis, the pos­si­bil­ity of an agree­ment with the Pales­tini­ans, and the threat of Iran’s nuclear weapons. I hope Livni is ready for this.