Considerations

RISHON LEZION, Israel -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is finally heading for the exit. Let's hope Israel's long national nightmare of corruption and incompetence is over. But he will remain as caretaker prime minister until Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the new head of the ruling Kadima party, can form another governing coalition. If she cannot do so after little more than a month, then President Shimon Peres will order a new general election.

Livni faces a complicated task. Here's the current party breakdown of Israel's parliament:

Kadima (moderate, centrist) -- 29

Labour (left-wing, socialist) -- 12

Shas (Sepharadi, ultra-Orthodox) -- 12

Likud (right-wing, capitalist) -- 12

Yisrael Beiteinu (right-wing, Russian) -- 11

National Religious Party (ultra-Orthodox) -- 9

Gil (advocates for pensioners) -- 7

United Torah Judaism (ultra-Orthodox) -- 6

Meretz (left-wing and secular) -- 5

United Arab List (Israeli Arabs) -- 4

Hadash (Israeli-Arab communists) -- 3

Balad (Israeli Arabs, favors a one-state solution) -- 3

Livni will need to gain the support of enough parties to hold a sixty seats, a majority in the Knesset, and it's not yet clear how she can do it. Likud, headed by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the ultra-Orthodox parties will never join a Kadima-led government because they do not support the current peace process. They also want a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, not Kadima's current diplomatic efforts. The Labor Party, currently headed by former prime minister Ehud Barak, may decide to sit in the opposition in order to revive its lackluster position and reform the party.

However, Shas will join any coalition as long as the party is guarenteed to receive government funding for its charedi constitutents, their large families, and their religious facilities. (However, Shas might pressure Livni to promise that a division of Jerusalem is completely off the table.) Gil would join in order to keep its Cabinet position overseeing pensions. Meretz, and possibly the United Arab List, would likely want to join a government to help move the peace process along.

But this coalition -- Kadima, Shas, Gil, Meretz, and the United Arab List -- would only bring fifty-seven seats. Livni needs three more. The only possible solution is for Livni to bring in Labor or one of the other Israeli-Arab parties. I'm not sure what she will do. The future of the government might just rest of Ehud Barak's shoulders.

The next government will need to deal with a brewing global financial crisis, the possibility of an agreement with the Palestinians, and the threat of Iran's nuclear weapons. I hope Livni is ready for this.

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