RISHON LEZION, Israel — At sundown tonight, Jews around the world will celebrate Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. Never before have I been so anxious about what the next year will bring.
In the United States, I worry that Americans may suffer a severe recession at best or an economic depression at worst. Or perhaps the last domino has fallen in the sub-prime mortgage debacle and the credit-crunch crisis, and no other banks or financial institutions will fail. I worry that the $700-billion bailout will move the federal government towards bankruptcy more quickly. Or maybe purchasing the bad debt will actually be a net gain for taxpayers in the end. I worry that the American people will be stupid enough to elect an angry, bitter man like Sen. John McCain — and an imbecile like Gov. Sarah Palin. Or maybe they will have seen the error of the last eight years under President Bush and elect Sen. Barack Obama.
It can go either way.
In Israel, I worry that Tzipi Livni will not be able to form a government, which will lead to new elections and a victory for Benjamin Netanyahu. Or perhaps she will for a stable government that does not include Shas and will move forward in the peace process. I worry that the current peace talks with Syria and the Palestinians will fail (again) even though most rational people on both sides know what any agreements must include. Or perhaps reason will win in the Middle East for once. I worry that Iran will nuke Israel. Or maybe Israel or the United States will bomb the facilities and set them back several years, giving time for a moderate government to gain control in Tehran.
It can go either way. L’shanah tova!
Related: Here is an interesting story about the “monotheistic traffic jam” in Jerusalem right now.
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My predictions:
Short-term pain, long-term gain for the US economy.
Ohio and Florida voters, again, will determine who becomes president, rather than the American electorate at large.
Peace efforts in the Levant will fail again because those same “rational” actors are constrained by the irrational minorities among their constituents.
Iran will continue as-is, as will US policy towards it. No guarantees Israel won’t nuke ‘em, though.
Shanah tova. Jeff(Quote)